BETA
Chapter 1
The wisdom of crowds
Chapter 2
From Iowa bars to crypto blockchains
Chapter 3
Pricing the presidency and world events
Chapter 4
Beyond politics
Ch 3 · Pricing the presidency and world events
nic Trade shares on elections and weather to discover how prediction markets forecast everything.
nic Political Media Feedback Loops
Feedback loop, feedback loop, the odds feed the news and the news feeds the odds.
nic During the 2024 US election, Polymarket handled 3.6 billion dollars in trades while Kalshi drew over 500 million dollars
Quiz
Approximately how much trading volume did Polymarket's US presidential election market reach in 2024?
Quiz
How much volume did Kalshi's newly legalized US election market handle during the 2024 election?
nic Live probability dashboards show how massive individual bets temporarily shift global prediction odds
Quiz
How much money did the famous French 'Trump whale' win after correctly predicting the 2024 election?
Quiz
In market terminology, what is a wealthy trader who places massive, market-moving bets called?
Fun Fact
Whale profits: A single French trader correctly predicted the 2024 US election outcomes and made over $85 million in profit.
Quiz
Which European country's general election is frequently traded on global prediction platforms?
Glossary
prediction market (noun)
A financial market where participants trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Polymarket generated over three billion dollars in total trading volume.
A financial market where participants trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Polymarket generated over three billion dollars in total trading volume.