How the internet bets on the future
Chapter 1
The wisdom of crowds
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Chapter 2
The digital betting arenas
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Chapter 3
The accuracy test
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Chapter 4
Ethics, manipulation, and the future
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YOUR GOAL
Master of How the internet bets on the future
Ch 4 · Ethics, manipulation, and the future
Fun Fact
Google's internal bets: Google found that its employees' internal betting markets were incredibly accurate at predicting product launch delays.
Glossary
insider trading (noun)
The illegal buying or selling of securities by someone who has access to nonpublic or confidential information. In April 2026, Gannon Van Dyke was indicted for using classified military secrets to bet on Polymarket.
The illegal buying or selling of securities by someone who has access to nonpublic or confidential information. In April 2026, Gannon Van Dyke was indicted for using classified military secrets to bet on Polymarket.
Quiz
Why do some corporations use internal prediction markets instead of traditional manager surveys?