How the internet bets on the future

Chapter 1

The wisdom of crowds

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Chapter 2

The digital betting arenas

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Chapter 3

The accuracy test

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Chapter 4

Ethics, manipulation, and the future

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YOUR GOAL

Master of How the internet bets on the future

Ch 2 · The digital betting arenas

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The digital betting arenas

futura The digital betting arenas

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futura Buy the yes, sell the no, let the market tell us where we go!

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futura How event contract shares turn into cash

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futura Kalshi and the fight for legal US trading

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futura The critical role of market makers

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futura The rise of decentralized crypto platforms

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How event contract shares turn into cash

futura How event contract shares turn into cash

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Fun Fact

Polymarket volume: During the 2024 US election cycle, Polymarket handled over $3.6 billion in total trading volume.

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Kalshi and the fight for legal US trading

futura Kalshi and the fight for legal US trading

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Glossary

prediction market (noun)
A speculative market where individuals trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events. In 2020, Shayne Coplan founded Polymarket, which became the world's largest online platform for event forecasting.

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Quiz

What is a market maker's primary job in a prediction market?

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Gossip

What would you bet on first?

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Quiz

What US regulatory body oversees Kalshi's regulated event contracts?

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Quiz

At what value do prediction market shares typically settle when an event occurs?

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Quiz

Which blockchain network does Polymarket primarily use for its transactions?

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Quiz

Which platform became the first CFTC-regulated exchange for event contracts in the US?

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Quiz

What happens to a 'No' share if the predicted event actually happens?

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Quiz

What type of cryptocurrency is typically used to trade on Polymarket?

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Quiz

In what year was the decentralized prediction market Polymarket founded?