ARTi
Monty Hall Problem: Marilyn vos Savant vs Mathematicians

Famous logic puzzles

Chapter 1

The art of river crossings and grids

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Chapter 2

Ancient riddles and philosophical paradoxes

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Answer

Chapter 3

Lateral thinking and creative loopholes

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Chapter 4

Game theory and probability traps

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YOUR GOAL

Master of Famous logic puzzles

Ch 4 · Game theory and probability traps
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schopenhauer The counterintuitive Monty Hall problem

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schopenhauer Game Theory Probability Traps

If you switch your door, your odds will jump up to two-thirds.

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schopenhauer The Sleeping Beauty coin toss debate

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The birthday paradox probability shock

schopenhauer This mathematical phenomenon shows that shared birthdays are far more common in small groups than we instinctively believe.

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The Prisoner Dilemma and cooperation

schopenhauer This core game theory scenario shows why two rational individuals might not cooperate, even if it is in their best interest.

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The Predictor's Box
BETA

schopenhauer The Predictor's Box

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Fun Fact

Monty Hall: When Marilyn vos Savant published the correct solution to the Monty Hall problem in 1990, thousands of PhD mathematicians wrote in arguing she was wrong.

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Glossary
monty hall problem (noun)
A probability puzzle in which a contestant chooses one of three doors, attempting to select the one hiding a prize. Marilyn vos Savant sparked intense debate in 1990 by publishing the correct, counterintuitive solution in Parade magazine.

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Gossip

Would you switch doors on Monty?

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Quiz

In Newcomb's paradox, a highly accurate predictor offers you two boxes. What is the term for someone who chooses to take only Box B?

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schopenhauer The Prisoner Dilemma and cooperation

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Quiz

In the 'St. Petersburg paradox,' a casino game offers an infinite expected payoff, yet people are only willing to pay a small entry fee. Why?

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schopenhauer The birthday paradox probability shock

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Quiz

How many people must be in a room to reach a 50% probability that at least two share the exact same birthday?

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Quiz

Which game theory scenario involves two players who must decide whether to cooperate or defect, leading to a suboptimal outcome if both defect?

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Quiz

In the Sleeping Beauty problem, what are the two competing philosophical schools of thought regarding her probability estimate?

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Quiz

In the Monty Hall problem, what is the mathematical probability of winning the car if you choose to switch doors?

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Quiz

Who formulated the mathematical concept of 'equilibrium' in game theory, famously illustrated by the Prisoner's Dilemma?

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Quiz

What is the name of the probability trap where people believe past independent events affect the likelihood of future random outcomes?

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