How the internet bets on the future

Chapter 1

The wisdom of crowds

View / Create

Answer

Chapter 2

The digital betting arenas

View / Create

Answer

Chapter 3

The accuracy test

View / Create

Answer

Chapter 4

Ethics, manipulation, and the future

View / Create

Answer

YOUR GOAL

Master of How the internet bets on the future

Ch 3 · The accuracy test

futura

futura Betting on it, betting on it, the crowd knows what is coming next!

futura

futura When prediction markets got it wrong

futura

Pocket Predictor

futura Pocket Predictor

futura

futura The power of skin in the game

futura

futura Real-time updates versus slow opinion polls

futura

futura Superforecasters and the Good Judgment Project

futura

When prediction markets got it wrong

futura When prediction markets got it wrong

futura

Fun Fact

Expert accuracy: Psychologist Philip Tetlock found that average political experts are about as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.

futura

The power of skin in the game

futura The power of skin in the game

futura

Quiz

Who led the Good Judgment Project to study elite human forecasting?

futura

Gossip

Who predicts the future best?

futura

Quiz

Why do prediction markets update faster than traditional opinion polls?

futura

Quiz

What is a 'superforecaster' in the context of cognitive science?

futura

Quiz

Which 2016 UK referendum did prediction markets famously miscalculate on voting day?

futura

Quiz

What probability did prediction markets give to the 'Remain' outcome on the day of the 2016 Brexit vote?

futura

Quiz

How do prediction markets reduce 'wishful thinking' in forecasts?

futura

Quiz

What did Philip Tetlock's 20-year study reveal about average expert political predictions?

futura

Quiz

What phrase did Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularize to describe having a financial stake in an outcome?