The wisdom of crowds
Decentralized crystal balls
Rewriting the front page
Beyond the final whistle
futura Place bets on future events to discover how prediction markets shape news and sports.
A speculative market created for the purpose of trading contracts based on the outcomes of future events. The University of Iowa's 1988 Electronic Markets proved that collective trading can outperform traditional political polls.
Crowd wisdom: In 1906, statistician Francis Galton found that the average of 800 guesses for a prize ox's weight was within one pound of its actual weight.
In what year did economists at the University of Iowa launch the first modern academic prediction market?
Which famous economist argued in 1945 that decentralized knowledge is best coordinated through market prices?
Which publication's massive straw poll in the 1920s began to replace betting odds in newspaper headlines?
If a prediction contract for a team winning the championship is trading at 35 cents, what does the market estimate their chance of winning to be?
In a standard prediction market, what is the maximum payout of a winning contract when it resolves?
What is the primary reason prediction markets are often more accurate than traditional public opinion polls?
During which period did informal, high-volume election betting markets operate openly on Wall Street?
Why did the Iowa Electronic Markets limit individual trader deposits to a maximum of $500?