How the internet bets on the future

Chapter 1

The wisdom of crowds

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Answer

Chapter 2

The digital betting arenas

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Chapter 3

The accuracy test

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Chapter 4

Ethics, manipulation, and the future

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YOUR GOAL

Master of How the internet bets on the future

Ch 3 · The accuracy test

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futura The accuracy test

Betting on it, betting on it, the crowd knows what is coming next!

Jul 10

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futura When prediction markets got it wrong

Jul 10

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futura Pocket Predictor

Jul 10

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futura The power of skin in the game

Jul 10

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futura Real-time updates versus slow opinion polls

Jul 10

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futura Superforecasters and the Good Judgment Project

Jul 10

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futura When prediction markets got it wrong

Jun 17

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Fun Fact

Expert accuracy: Psychologist Philip Tetlock found that average political experts are about as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.

Jun 17

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futura The power of skin in the game

Jun 17

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Quiz

Who led the Good Judgment Project to study elite human forecasting?

Jun 17

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Gossip

Who predicts the future best?

Jun 17

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Quiz

Why do prediction markets update faster than traditional opinion polls?

Jun 17

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Quiz

What is a 'superforecaster' in the context of cognitive science?

Jun 17

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Quiz

Which 2016 UK referendum did prediction markets famously miscalculate on voting day?

Jun 17

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Quiz

What probability did prediction markets give to the 'Remain' outcome on the day of the 2016 Brexit vote?

Jun 17

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Quiz

How do prediction markets reduce 'wishful thinking' in forecasts?

Jun 17

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Quiz

What did Philip Tetlock's 20-year study reveal about average expert political predictions?

Jun 17

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Quiz

What phrase did Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularize to describe having a financial stake in an outcome?

Jun 17