How the internet bets on the future

futura The accuracy test

Betting on it, betting on it, the crowd knows what is coming next!

futura When prediction markets got it wrong

BETA

futura Trade shares on upcoming events to discover how online betting forecasts the future.

futura The power of skin in the game

futura Real-time updates versus slow opinion polls

futura Superforecasters and the Good Judgment Project

futura Prediction markets are not infallible and have famously failed during highly unpredictable historical events.

Fun Fact

Expert accuracy: Psychologist Philip Tetlock found that average political experts are about as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.

futura Financial risk forces traders to put aside their personal biases to make accurate forecasts.

Quiz

Who led the Good Judgment Project to study elite human forecasting?

Gossip

Who predicts the future best?

Quiz

Why do prediction markets update faster than traditional opinion polls?

Quiz

What is a 'superforecaster' in the context of cognitive science?

Quiz

Which 2016 UK referendum did prediction markets famously miscalculate on voting day?

Quiz

What probability did prediction markets give to the 'Remain' outcome on the day of the 2016 Brexit vote?

Quiz

How do prediction markets reduce 'wishful thinking' in forecasts?

Quiz

What did Philip Tetlock's 20-year study reveal about average expert political predictions?

Quiz

What phrase did Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularize to describe having a financial stake in an outcome?